1ClassyLady 68F
3126 posts
4/23/2017 11:25 pm
Twenty-five million reasons the U.S. hasn’t struck North Korea

If the United States were to strike North Korea, Kim Jong Un’s regime would retaliate by unleashing its conventional weaponry lined up on the demilitarized zone that has separated the two Koreas for about 7 decades.

And that conventional weaponry is reliable, unlike North Korea’s missiles, and could cause major devastation in South Korea, which is a staunch ally of the United States.

“This becomes a very limiting factor for the U.S.,” said Carl Baker, a retired Air Force officer with extensive experience in South Korea.

As tensions between North Korea and the outside world have risen over the past month, there has been increasing talk about the United States using military force either to preempt a North Korean provocation or to respond to one.

That talk continues even after it emerged that the Navy had not sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula region, as officials, including President Trump, had implied.

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said this week that he supported striking North Korea to stop it from developing the capability to reach the United States with a missile — even if that came at a huge cost for the region.

“It would be terrible, but the war would be over [in South Korea], it wouldn’t be here,” Graham said in an interview with NBC.

[ White House warns North Korea not to test U.S. resolve ]

Although most of the recent focus has been on North Korea’s ambition to be able to strike the continental United States with a missile, the people of South Korea have been living under the constant threat of a conventional North Korean attack for decades.

North Korea has “a tremendous amount of artillery” right opposite Seoul, said Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a senior imagery analyst at 38 North, a website focused on North Korea.

The Second Corps of the Korean People’s Army stationed at Kaesong on the northern side of the DMZ has about 500 artillery pieces, Bermudez said. And this is just one army corps; similar corps are on either side of it.

All the artillery pieces in the Second Corps can reach the northern outskirts of Seoul, just 30 miles from the DMZ, but the largest projectiles could fly to the south of the capital. About 25 million people — or half of the South Korean population — live in the greater Seoul metropolitan area.

“It’s the tyranny of proximity,” said David Maxwell, who served in South Korea during his 30 years in the Army and now teaches at Georgetown University. “It’s like the distance between Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Imagine a million-man army just outside the Beltway with artillery they could use to terrorize Washington.”

About half of North Korea’s artillery pieces are multiple rocket launchers, including 18 to 36 of the huge 300mm launchers that Pyongyang has bragged about. State media last year published photos of the system during a test firing that Kim attended.

The 300mm guns could probably fire eight rounds every 15 minutes, Bermudez said, and have a range of about 44 miles.

“This could do a lot of damage,” he said. “If they hit a high-rise building with a couple of rounds of artillery, people get into their cars, causing huge traffic jams, so North Korea could target highways and bridges in cascades.”

If North Korea were to start unleashing its artillery on the South, it would be able to fire about 4,000 rounds an hour, Roger Cavazos of the Nautilus Institute estimated in a 2012 study. There would be 2,811 fatalities in the initial volley and 64,000 people could be killed that first day, the majority of them in the first three hours, he wrote.

Some of the victims would be American, because the U.S. military has about 28,000 troops in South Korea. The higher estimates for the 300mm rocket launcher’s range — up to 65 miles — would put the U.S. Air Force base at Osan and the new military garrison at Pyeongtaek, the replacement for the huge base in Seoul, within reach.

This prospect of extensive damage and casualties has restrained successive U.S. administrations, however provocative North Korea has been.

“Every U.S. administration, as they have looked at this problem, has said that all options are available. But that’s not really true,” said Baker, who is at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We really don’t have a military option.”

Vice President Pence, speaking in Seoul this week, said that all options are on the table for dealing with North Korea, echoing statements that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made in Seoul last month.

[ N. Korea didn’t test a nuclear weapon, but it did try to launch another missile ]

There was a similar discussion in 1994, when North Korea threatened to go nuclear, sparking talk of surgical strikes.

“People in Washington were saying, ‘We have the capability to do this,’ but those of us who were sitting in Seoul said, ‘You can’t do that,’ ” Baker said.

It is not just South Korea that would suffer. Such action would be devastating for North Korea, too, because the U.S. and South Korean militaries have spent decades developing their counter-battery capability, as well as developing plans for airstrikes to take out North Korea’s facilities.

“Defending Seoul against such a threat is the top priority for the alliance,” said Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general in the South Korean army who served as commander of South Korea’s Special Warfare Command.




Honesty is the best policy.


1ClassyLady 68F
3289 posts
4/24/2017 11:37 am

    Quoting  :

North Korea wants to attack South Korea is only partially to do with Trump, NOT totally. As we all know, N. Korea is a communist country and they only have one political party with a dictator. If anyone wants to protest different opinion to Kim Jong-Un, that person will die. Because they don't have bipartisan system as we are in democracy country, the N. Korea people has been brainwashed and completely obey to that stupid Kim Jong-Un. They don't have another political party to interfere the only communist party. N. Korean people became "silent lambs" just like other communist country, e.g. China, Vietnam.

This is a fundamental difference. It is always communist side wants to attack democracy side and both sides speak the same language. N. Korea is more than happy to destroy S. Korea. You ask any S. Korea people they hate N. Korea government. When I was an "intern pharmacist" worked at a pharmacy in 1984. One of the pharmacy tech was is Korean, so I asked her "where did you come from? North or South". That female pharmacy tech immediately became angry, very angry and answered me "all the Koreans you see in USA are 99.9999% from S. Korea, period." Up to this date, I remember what she said communist N. Korea won't allow their people to travel out of country unless very high raking military members. She wanted me to remember "the most Koreans I see in USA are from S. Korea, NOT from N. Korea".

Now do you understand as a Taiwanese feel under the threat of communist China? If communist remain one political party, their people never understand they have "option to have different voice to protest their government" to prevent dictatorship.

I am an American and a Democrat. Trump won the election and became U.S. president. We admit the fact but not completely obey whatever Trump wants to do because we have bipartisan system - Democracy. Communist Chinese simply don't have this "concept". They don't understand why Democrat need to interfere and protest what Trump is doing that not agree with Democratic policy. They thought once the president won election, all the people in the nation have to obey and follow that president.

I hope someday, somehow communist Chinese people will have bipartisan system, so that they understand what is "democracy" all about.



Honesty is the best policy.


1ClassyLady 68F
3289 posts
4/24/2017 7:29 am

Trump called China's leader, Xi Jinping, and Japan prime minister, Shinzo Abe to discuss the situation about N. Korea to attack S. Korea. Kim Jong Un is a tyrant who controls his military and launched missiles (we don't know if N. Korea has nuclear bomb or not) to attack his adjacent S. Korea. Communist N. Korea hates democracy S. Korea and S. Korea just impeached their female president and will have a presidential election on May 9. In other word, S. Korea doesn't have a leader at this moment.

Our USS Carl Vinson group ships are heading to Sea of Japan to show power of our military in Asia now. Although N. Korea missiles might not imminent threat to U.S. soil but it can cause devastate damage by attacking S. Korea capital Seoul. There will have domino effect in the world. We can't neglect this situation in N. Korea.



Honesty is the best policy.


1ClassyLady 68F
3289 posts
4/24/2017 12:43 am

This imminent danger could be more important than French presidential election. When I read this article from Washington Post, I feel the intense and imminent danger on this region. Once N. Korea strike, S. Korea people will escape and hop on their cars, desperately to get out of Seoul, the freeway jam-up with cars. That is when N. Korea to bomb the freeway/ highway. I don't want this thing happen. But if it will happen, it could happen. Even all our U.S. Christians kneel down and pray, all the S. Korean Christians kneel down and pray to god "don't let the war start", but if it will happen, it will.

If U.S. preemptively strike N. Korea missiles, but still some missiles will miss, then the people in Seoul will have imminent danger. Seoul population is 1/2 of S. Korean people in total.

Perhaps, we in U.S. won't have any war (not in shooting range) but the region that involve also Japan and China. I hope Kim Jong Un is a normal peaceful guy. Nothing will happen. I want "Peace on Earth".



Honesty is the best policy.


1ClassyLady 68F
3289 posts
4/23/2017 11:50 pm

The capital of South Korea, Seoul, Metropolitan population is 25 million. City of Osan, in So. Korea is U.S. Air force base and Pyeongtaek is new U.S. military garrison. That North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, is a unstable, unpredictable crazy person who has traditional missiles that aim to Seoul, Osan, and Pyeongtaek (see the map above). Once the war starts there are more than 25 million people live in So. Korea capitol, Seoul and U.S. military base also within the shooting range.

Just say N. Korea doesn't have nuclear bomb or aim to U.S. soil yet, but the casualties in S. Korea will be devastating. Hope Trump has strategy that can preemptively strike N. Korea traditional missiles before they attack S. Korea.

You never know what Kim Jong Un would attack. I think the situation is very intense. U.S. has powerful weapon but the casualties in S. Korea could be very devastating. It is beyond me. I don't want to see any war or large population people die.



Honesty is the best policy.