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Trump: 'If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash' President Trump believes the market wouldn’t react well if he were to be impeached. “If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash,” Trump told Fox News. “I think everybody would be very poor. Because without this thinking you would see, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse.” On Tuesday, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on charges of tax evasion and bank fraud. Also on Tuesday, Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to 8 counts of illegal campaign contributions made “at the direction of a candidate for federal office.” These campaign violations involve payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal, women who claim to have had affairs with Trump. As a result, some see the likelihood of Trump’s impeachment increasing. On political prediction site PredictIt, the odds of a Trump impeachment hit a three-month high, with the current odds of it happening by the end of 2019 sitting at 37% and the probability of it happening sometime within his first term at 45%. Volatility is far from a sure thing But Wall Street experts like JPMorgan’s John Normand aren’t convinced that a bumpy presidency would mean trouble for markets, saying that to think a Trump impeachment would derail the markets seems “hasty.” “Fiscal stimulus, which has been the most-material driver of this year’s step up in US growth and corporate earnings, would not be reversed if the mid-term elections delivered a Democratic Congress, an impeachment process or eventually a guilty verdict,” Normand wrote in a note to . “Neither has the Trump Administration been proposing a deregulatory agenda comparable to Reagan and Clinton’s that requires legislation to deliver transformational change. The agenda is advancing more through personnel, priorities, rules and executive orders, which are important at the sectoral level (Financials, Energy) but not at the macroeconomic one. Thus, rethinking the direction of the economy or financial markets on the prospects for less deregulation under a preoccupied or a different President seems hasty.” Certainly, there’s a case to be made that markets would nevertheless experience volatility in the near-term. However, there are bigger things out there driving the market in the long run. “Perhaps there is a tactical case for reducing overweights in Equities versus Bonds this Fall, on a view that a high P/E market is typically vulnerable to drawdown before an event risk,” Normand added. “But the case for strategically underweighting stocks or shifting to long duration is poor unless one believes that prospects for US growth, earnings and the Fed in 2019 rest on this aspect of domestic politics.” What about Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton? In the note, Normand emphasized that impeachment “is a process rather than an event, involving several judicial and institutional phases.” And while there have been past examples of disgraced presidencies, they need to be examined individually. Normand noted that Nixon’s impeachment process began shortly after the First Oil Shock in late 1973 that resulted in recession and rising inflation. Nixon resigned in August 1974. Elsewhere, Clinton’s impeachment in December 1998 was “almost a non-event for the markets” as stocks and credit had already experienced the Asian Crisis, the Russian default, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management that summer. The “wildcard,” according to Normand, is trade. Trump has authorized tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods. “If, at some point, Trump’s Presidency ends prematurely like Nixon’s, the lingering question for EM – or at least the China complex – will be whether the new boss Vice President Pence will be the same as the old boss.” Yahoo Finance’s senior columnist Rick Newman has made the case for why President Pence “could turn out to be better for markets and the economy than Trump.” Honesty is the best policy. |
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High crimes and misdemeanors. The house of misrepresentatives can impeach him all Mad Maxine wants, but if there are no valid charges, it won't go anywhere. Not only that, it's not even the end, upon a successful impeachment, the Senate has to vote for removal from office. The best they could hope for is a blot on his name, and the way he's been playing these people, he would probably turn it around on them and make them look like the fools they are. Pence was my Governor before this, and he's a straight arrow, but not much fun to watch. I Googled Michael Pence. Los Angeles Times article title "Why Mike Pence is such a sycophant?" Inside that article said "Pence believes that God has a plan for him, and if that plan requires him to temporarily abandon his principles as well as his dignity, so be it." A book calls vice president Mike Pence, 'Christian supremacist': 6 key takeaways from a new book describe Michael Pence as ". I am an atheist/agnostic, so Christian supremacist won't work on me. Honesty is the best policy.
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8/24/2018 5:47 am |
High crimes and misdemeanors. The house of misrepresentatives can impeach him all Mad Maxine wants, but if there are no valid charges, it won't go anywhere. Not only that, it's not even the end, upon a successful impeachment, the Senate has to vote for removal from office. The best they could hope for is a blot on his name, and the way he's been playing these people, he would probably turn it around on them and make them look like the fools they are. Pence was my Governor before this, and he's a straight arrow, but not much fun to watch.
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Here’s why rising Trump impeachment odds aren’t rattling stock-market investors Corporate earnings and the economy still appear to carry more weight with investors than President Donald Trump’s mounting legal and political woes, including the threat of impeachment. According to political prediction markets, impeachment odds rose after Trump’s former personal attorney on Tuesday pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations and his former campaign manager was convicted on tax and bank fraud charges. In a Thursday interview on Fox News Channel, Trump predicted that if he were to be impeached, the stock market would “crash.” Why so resilient? J.P. Gravitt, chief executive of research firm Market Realist, said there’s a two-fold explanation for the market’s resiliency. For stocks to sell off on impeachment fears, investors would “have to suppose that Trump is responsible for everything good in the market to suppose that the opposite would be true, and second we would have to know with a capital K that he will be gone and when any changes would be made to reverse his policies,” he said. While investors are unlikely to panic, Gravitt said a more material threat could exert psychological pressure closer to midterm elections in November or if Special Counsel Robert Mueller “finds something more damaging.” Honesty is the best policy.
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Did Trump threat the stock market will be plunged, if he would be impeached??? Trump can't change his past behaviors, e.g. extramarital affairs with adult film star, Stormy Daniels and the playboy magazine model, Karen McDougal. Of course, there are 19 cases suing Trump for groping, forceful kisses, ... We are a Democracy country in USA that has "rule of law" and "nobody is above the law". We are not in communist country, i.e. Russia, North Korea, China, .... and many others. Problem is if VP, Michael Pence, takes over Trump administration, will he be a puppet of Trump? I don't know VP Pence, but he seems no extramarital affairs. Honesty is the best policy.
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