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Time Brings Much It is quite unlikely that China will continue to allow N. Korea to provoke instability. Especially not for a nation it has been propping up and supporting. Maybe now China understand that it should have spoke earlier and it should have curbed assistance, while it fed the N. Koreans while it leaders invested N. Korean Money into weapons. Now it comes back to haunt China and threaten its stability. China can't afford the destabilizing consequence of a N. Korean instigated war. China also cannot prepare itself for the influx of refugee if a conflict is created by N. Korea, nor can it prepare itself for the economic consequences it will bring to China by the brash and foolish actions of N. Korea. [ from the news] Chinese President Xi Jinping, addressing a forum on the southern island of Hainan, did not name North Korea but said no country "should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gain". Stability in Asia, he said, "faces new challenges, as hot spot issues keep emerging and both traditional and non-traditional security threats exist". Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a statement late on Saturday, relating a telephone conversation with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, expressed similar frustration. "We oppose provocative words and actions from any party in the region and do not allow trouble making on China's doorstep," Wang said, according to a ministry statement on its website. [end news} If necessary, China will invade N. Korea and squash its position, even it if means defeating N. Korea and turning it into a Provincial Colony of China. China as well as the rest of the world has watched as the madness of N. Korea played itself out of the economic growth that every other nation in the region embraced. Now, N. Korea does not know how to join the economic reform program, and if it takes these actions to force its old mentality Generals to submit to change, then Kim's actions may in part be against his own Military leadership, which he can't dispose of, but by a conflict it will given him assistance in getting rid of the hard line old mentality Military leadership. The difference is Kim has seen what many in his nation has not seen, and that is the fact the world is moving forward and N. Korea is going backwards. But he does not know how to change it from within, but by dominant pressure from outside, he will get a platform to push change. He knows the world has lined up against him, and he knows he can't win, but a stand does in a peculiar way, set things in motion for outside pressure to force internal change. The Old Time Generals must be put out to pasture. The Old Time political party bosses must be made to submit. Kim's delusion of grandeur is something that is to be short lived. he knows something must change, but he does not know how or what, and what he should know if he does not know, is the simple fact, that he will loose and he may not be alive to see the change. He can be taken down, but in doing so, the rank of his Military leadership must also be taken down with him. This is the picture: ( from the news) Natural resources: coal, lead, tungsten, zinc, graphite, magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold, pyrites, salt, fluorspar, hydropower. North Korea may begin to resemble an oil-rich gulf state, using the huge profits from a natural resource to keep in place an inefficient and corrupt state. Kim may have to turn increasingly to other countries with greater technology, such as China, the world's leading expert in rare earth metals, and even South Korea. Businessinsider says: /north-korea-is-thought-to-be-sitting-on-6-trillion-worth-of-rare-earth-metals- [End News] These indicators show multiple factos why N. Korea cannot make a sustained campaign of war on any in the region. What it is, is a pimple on the face of the East and South Eastern Asian Region. It has limited value in relation to the world going to war because of it. The forces that would come to bear against N. Korea would be astounding upon the acts of N. Korean initiation of active aggressive deployment of armaments against any of its neighbors or their allies. It could potentially face a break up of N. Korea t be split between China, Russia and South Korea... Area: total: 120,540 sq km land: 120,410 sq km water: 130 sq km Area - comparative: slightly smaller than Mississippi Land boundaries: total: 1,673 km border countries: China 1,416 km, South Korea 238 km, Russia 19 km Coastline: 2,495 km Climate: temperate with rainfall concentrated in summer Terrain: mostly hills and mountains separated by deep, narrow valleys; coastal plains wide in west, discontinuous in east Land use: arable land: 20.76% permanent crops: 2.49% other: 76.75% (2001) Irrigated land: 14,600 sq km (1998 est.) Natural hazards: late spring droughts often followed by severe flooding; occasional typhoons during the early fall Environment - current issues: water pollution; inadequate supplies of potable water; waterborne disease; deforestation; soil erosion and degradation Environment - international agreements: party to: Antarctic Treaty, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Environmental Modification, Ozone Layer Protection, Ship Pollution signed, but not ratified: Law of the Sea Geography - note: strategic location bordering China, South Korea, and Russia; mountainous interior is isolated and sparsely populated People Korea, North Population: 22,912,177 (July 2005 est.) Age structure: 0-14 years: 24.2% (male 2,816,844/female 2,735,478 ) 15-64 years: 67.9% (male 7,668,581/female 7,883,267) 65 years and over: 7.9% (male 625,819/female 1,182,188 ) (2005 est.) Median age: total: 31.74 years male: 30.47 years female: 33 years (2005 est.) Population growth rate: 0.9% (2005 est.) Birth rate: 16.09 births/1,000 population (2005 est.) Death rate: 7.05 deaths/1,000 population (2005 est.) Economy - overview: North Korea, one of the world's most centrally planned and isolated economies, faces desperate economic conditions. Industrial capital stock is nearly beyond repair as a result of years of underinvestment and spare parts shortages. Industrial and power output have declined in parallel. The nation has suffered its eleventh year of food shortages because of a lack of arable land, collective farming, weather-related problems, and chronic shortages of fertilizer and fuel. Massive international food aid deliveries have allowed the regime to escape mass starvation since 1995, but the population remains the victim of prolonged malnutrition and deteriorating living conditions. Large-scale military spending eats up resources needed for investment and civilian consumption. Change is coming and the push to try and gain a power position ahead of these external needs... is touchy business, which may not turn out well for N. Korea if it does not grasp the reality of when to stand down. |
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It's such a trip... there are so many other ways to build relations... but saber rattling will rarely bring about the honest openness that can be bi-laterally beneficial and progressive for either party. Respect is something that should find its basis through appreciation, not by acts of intimidation and efforts to invoke fear or being of a demanding and demeaning design to force or encroach. this is a big problem that this kids has not learn, because being the son of a tyrant, he has never known how to develop good relations on a purely human to human basis that nurtures an environment where respect is mutually earned through mutual regard and ultimately mutual appreciation.
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I find it quite amazing how ill concerns many of the participants in the blog arena have so little to say about anything. I did however feel that you (Goan) would engage dialog, because you are open minded and not inhibited about engaging subject matter. You are appreciated.
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I'd hope that in a twisted way, that these actions may be a way to put his General in a trick bag which may help him get rid of them, and get rid of some of the old heads in the political arena who are certainly trying to do what ever they can to protect the fortunes they have amassed by the rip off they have done to the people. as I said in a piece I wrote. he may be looking to outside influences to help him get a pathway to change his political establishment. I do think he has a very disciplined people even if they became so by force and conditions, they are disciplined and they have a high literacy rate. which means they are highly trainable and that translates into a very robust populations for industrial success with the external investments helping them build a broader industrial system. It may even be necessary to push things to the brink to invoke change and it may be necessary to force a situation where dialog can expand to encompass subject matter that was previous prohibitive by the old guard. There is always more behind the scenes than is made public. If the threat was just blatant ignorance, China and Russia would have already stormed the borders, because neither want the sub-sequence of a that type of destabilization on their borders. . It is unlikely that he is as staunch as his father, because he has been exposed to a much broader world view during his Swiss college days and the Westernized cultures that was part of that environment. I doubt they want to loose the unity that is found in a disciplined society, but he should be aware there has to come some levels of liberty that will impact the ways that discipline infuses and expands to encompass not only liberalism but capitalism. the young kid has a mountain to deal with and he can in some ways only move inches at a time, but he is trying to find a way to leap... The forces are aligned to give him help.. but he has to find a way to quell the Generals and the old head politicians and the provincial leaders... and that may come in a manner of seeing many of them not only dismissed but summarily executed by internal change in ideology as to the political and military shifts that are ultimately necessary. . Even the visit by Rodman was a calculated move, because in no way would it be twisted into a political mess, but Kim did make it clear that he would like to talk with President Obama... We never know what happens via back channels, especially those that are designed to not appear as back channels. We never know what they talked about, because they most certainly spent more time together than most nation leaders share during their visits. Nor do we know the access points of the many ways debriefing is engaged...and certainly it is not something that can be made public. If he allow his Generals and Old heads to think they are creating a situation, it may be just the mess he needs them to create so he has public support to dismiss all of them. The old saying, is give a fool enough rope and he will hang himself... This may be exactly what he is doing with his Generals and old timer politicians. Because to effectively remove them, he has to craft a way to disgrace them in the eyes of the people without, destroying the integrity of the military or the basis to have a governing system. It takes a lot to out wit the old fox type General and Politicians, but they are old and can be outwitted.
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